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While the
grinding Iraq
war currently
dominates the
attention of the
American public
and government,
China’s steady
rise in economic
and political
influence is the
single event
that will
reshape
international
politics in the
21st century.
Sooner or later,
American
officials will
turn their
attention to
confronting this
issue. There
are two key
points to keep
in mind.
First, China’s
rising influence
is natural. It
is a country of
1.3 billion
people. Until
1800, it
comprised a
third of world
economic
output. China’s
rapid growth
over the last 30
years reflects a
return toward
this long-term
historical
equilibrium.
China’s
development, as
well as that of
the rest of
Asia, will
necessarily
alter the
preeminent
geopolitical
position that
the United
States has
enjoyed since
the end of the
Cold War, and
that Western
nations have
enjoyed since
the 19th
century. The
operational
question is not
whether we like
it or not. It
is how we
adapt.
Second, China’s
leaders are not
seeking a
worldwide
confrontation
with the United
States. Their
key priorities
are domestic.
The single issue
that keeps them
up late at night
is the fear that
the growing
discontent of
rural farmers
and migrants
could
metastasize into
a revolutionary
force that
topples them
from power. All
of the
formidable
energies of the
Chinese
party-state –
the tough police
controls, the
focus on rapid
economic
development, and
the new emphasis
on addressing
the needs of the
rural poor – are
directed at
warding off such
an event.
This is not to
ignore the
existence of
real and
important
conflicts
between the
United States
and China.
Tensions over
Taiwan remain.
Chinese
officials
continue to
violate their
own laws and
treaty
commitments
granting
citizens
religious
liberty and free
speech,
generating
recriminations
on the part of
the American
government and
public. But
China today,
unlike the
Soviet Union of
the 1950s, is
not seeking to
challenge the
very foundations
of the
international
political and
economic order
that have been
established
since World War
II.
So what does
this mean for
U.S. policy
toward China?
First, we need
to view China
not as a threat,
but as a
challenge. We
should address
Chinese
competition, not
through economic
protectionism,
but rather
through
sustained
investment in
the education of
America’s
children. We
should address
increased
Chinese
political
influence, not
through
bellicose
unilateralism or
timid
isolationism,
but rather
through
expanding
existing
institutions to
give Chinese
authorities a
role in shaping
the
international
order, and bear
corresponding
responsibilities
in handling
international
crises such as
North Korea and
Sudan.
We should also
directly address
Chinese
violations of
human rights
standards and
denials of
political
liberties, not
through willful
ignorance or
high-pitched
denunciations,
but through
careful and
consistent
emphasis on the
extent to which
they fuel the
social unrest
Chinese
officials so
desperately wish
to avoid. The
ability of the
United States to
remake any
country in a
democratic mold
by compulsion is
limited, if not
nonexistent.
These efforts
often result in
a nationalist
backlash and
rejection of the
very democratic
principles which
the United
States espouses,
particularly
when American
officials
themselves are
forced to
compromise these
principles for
the sake of
their
geopolitical
interests. But
the concepts of
rule of law and
representative
government
continue to hold
appeal for many
in China,
particularly
those who
appreciate the
extent to which
many of China’s
internal
troubles are
rooted in a
fossilized
political system
that has failed
to keep pace
with the rapid
economic and
social changes
of the past
three decades.
We should
support calls
for positive
reform, and in
particular
emphasize that
citizen
experimentation
with these
concepts does
not represent
American efforts
to impose a
foreign
ideology, but
rather an
ongoing search
by Chinese
citizens
themselves for
means to resolve
the core
problems of
governance,
social unrest,
and violations
of citizen
rights that
confront China.
Second, the
United States
must reaffirm
its commitment
to international
norms and
multilateral
institutions as
a means to
protect our
interests.
American
officials do not
want to see
China’s growing
economic and
political muscle
funneled into
creating
free-trade zones
and political
alliances that
exclude the
United States.
Out of simple
national
self-interest,
American
officials should
seek a China
that is firmly
anchored in
multilateral
institutions and
processes. But
realizing that
goal requires
American
officials to
make serious
commitments to
strengthening
these
institutions
now. If
American
authorities
undermine our
commitments
under
international
human rights or
WTO treaties now
in favor of
short-term
political gain,
we limit our own
ability to
invoke them in
our defense in
the future, when
our relative
influence may be
weaker, and our
need to resort
to them greater.
Third, we must
deal with China
in a bipartisan
manner.
American
politicians,
both Democrats
and Republicans,
have all too
often viewed
China as a means
to score
political points
with narrow
domestic
constituencies,
instead of
trying to work
together across
the aisle to
formulate a
broader
strategic
vision. One can
do that with
small nations.
One can not with
a country that
represents a
fifth of
humanity.
--###--
Carl Minzner is
an International
Affairs Fellow
at the Council
of Foreign
Relations. He
previously
served as Senior
Counsel for the
Congressional-Executive
Commission on
China.
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