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What is the best
way to pick a
President?
With the 2008
campaign season
already
underway, it’s
time to give
serious
consideration to
this question.
The election
marks a
historical
rarity – the
first
presidential
contest in
decades where
both major
political
parties have
wide open races
for the
nomination, and
yet the primary
competition
could be over by
this time next
year.
Much of the
problem lies in
the increasing
rush to
front-load the
calendar, with
states pushing
their primary
dates forward to
gain a share of
national
attention from
the media and
the campaigns.
Right now, the
Democratic
presidential
nominating
schedule begins
with the Iowa
caucuses (Jan.
14) followed
quickly by
caucuses in
Nevada (Jan.
19), the
traditional
first primary in
New Hampshire
(Jan. 22), and
then South
Carolina’s
primary (Jan.
29). The GOP
calendar is
still in flux,
but the voting
in Iowa and New
Hampshire will
likely take
place on the
same days as the
Democratic
contests, and
the South
Carolina
Republican
primary is
currently under
consideration
for February 2.
What follows is
essentially a
free-for-all
among states
hoping to
increase their
influence in the
nominating
process. More
than 20 states
are looking to
hold their
primaries on
February 5 (the
earliest date
sanctioned by
party rules),
including a
number of
larger,
vote-rich states
such as
California,
Florida, New
York, New Jersey
and Illinois.
In fact, almost
30 states are on
track to push
their
presidential
nominating
contests into
January or
February of next
year. That’s
compared to nine
states that did
so in 2000 and
19 in 2004.
As University of
Virginia
Political
Science
Professor Larry
Sabato recently
quipped, “If the
job of
scheduling the
presidential
nominating
contests were
assigned to an
insane asylum,
this is pretty
much what the
patients would
come up with.”
All kidding
aside, the
outcomes of the
volatile primary
schedule are
grim – campaigns
that begin too
early and rely
too heavily on
fundraising from
big donors, as
well as a
process that
leaves most
voters in the
dust when it
comes to
choosing their
party’s nominee.
The impact on
voter turnout is
a major concern
for the National
Association of
Secretaries of
State (NASS),
which represents
the nation's top
state election
officials.
Studies in 2004
showed that
fewer than eight
percent of the
eligible
electorate cast
their ballot
before the
nomination was
effectively
decided.
Meanwhile,
eight states
cancelled their
primaries
outright because
they were
unwilling to
foot the bill
for an election
that had no
impact on the
outcome of the
race.
The worst
consequence of
the 2008 primary
schedule may
ultimately be a
general election
campaign that
lasts nine
months and
produces
candidates who
don’t get to
know the entire
country the way
they once had to
do.
To address these
problems and to
create a more
rational
process, the
nation's
secretaries of
state are hoping
to generate
support for the
NASS Regional
Rotating
Presidential
Primaries Plan.
Our proposal
divides the
country into
four geographic
areas – Eastern,
Southern,
Midwestern and
Western – and
rotates each
region to vote
first beginning
in March. The
other regions
would hold their
primary
elections in
April, May and
June. A
different part
of the country
would vote first
every 16 years.
New Hampshire
and Iowa would
retain their
early status to
allow
under-funded and
less widely
known candidates
to compete
through retail
politics rather
than the costly
media-driven
campaigns
required in
larger states.
The Carter-Baker
Commission on
Federal Election
Reform,
co-chaired by
former President
Jimmy Carter and
former Secretary
of State James
A. Baker III,
endorsed the
NASS proposal in
its September
2005 report. In
addition to
increasing voter
participation
while restoring
sanity to the
process, it
aims to
allow
under-funded,
“no name”
candidates to
have a fair and
fighting chance
against the
better known
candidates with
major campaign
war chests. Its
adoption would
greatly increase
the likelihood
that voters in
all parts of the
country would
have a say in
selecting the
party nominees
for President
and that our
presidential
contenders would
be well-versed
in public policy
issues in all
regions of the
U.S. (and not
just ethanol
subsidies in
Iowa, for
example).
The primary
process is badly
in need of
reform, but it's
too late for
2008. The
calendar is
being set, and
GOP rules say
the national
convention must
determine
presidential
nominating
procedures, not
the party.
Therefore, the
next window for
adopting the
regional
rotating plan is
2012.
With the 2000
election and
Bush v. Gore
still a vivid
memory for
election
officials, we
hope that the
parties will
seriously
consider a
proactive
overhaul before
disaster
strikes. We
believe that
it's time to
look beyond
strategy and
self-interest to
create a process
that is in the
best interests
of our nation's
voters. A
regional,
rotating system
of primaries is
a better, more
sensible way to
choose our
President.
Until then, we
should be
prepared for one
very long
election cycle.
--###--
Washington
Secretary of
State Sam Reed
is the immediate
past president
of the National
Association of
Secretaries of
State (NASS).
Vermont
Secretary of
State Deb
Markowitz is the
current NASS
President.
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