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They’ve been
called soccer
moms, minivan
moms, and
security moms,
and 2010 may
bring yet
another moniker
for married
women with
children. But
however they may
be branded,
there is one
label that
increasingly
doesn’t fit
them:
Republican.
In 2004, this
cohort was
considered a key
turn-out group
by the Bush
campaign team
and is credited
with helping to
re-elect George
W. Bush with 56
percent of their
vote. However,
by 2006, they
were considered
“in play” by
both parties,
and by 2008,
they had shifted
toward
Democrats.
In the 2008
election,
married moms and
dads had a 13
point gender
gap: Married
women with
children voted
for Barack Obama
by a 51-47
percent margin,
while married
dads voted for
John McCain by
nine points. In
suburbs
everywhere,
couples were
waging battle
over whose
bumper sticker
to put on the
minivan.
As a member of
the minivan mom
contingent
(actually, Volvo
wagon mom), as
well as a
Republican
pollster, I have
both personal
and professional
interest in the
party’s slide
among this key
demographic
group.
The Republican
Party’s slippage
with married
women with
children is
concurrent with
the party’s
slide in the
suburbs. The
suburbs went red
in 2000 and
2004, but voted
for Barack Obama
in 2008. The
suburban vote
represents an
increasing share
of the
electorate
(nearly 50
percent, which
is up 6 percent
since 2000) and
holds the key to
election
outcomes.
Typically, rural
and urban areas
have cancelled
each other out:
the shrinking
rural vote is
overwhelmingly
red, while urban
voters are
reliably blue.
The Republican
Party’s slippage
with married
women with
children is
concurrent with
the party’s
slide in the
suburbs.
Unfortunately,
the Republican
message
continues to be
geared to the 21
percent of the
electorate in
rural America –
rather than the
vast majority of
Americans who
live in the
increasingly
diverse mix
found in
suburbia and
cities.
Democrats made
and continue to
make a concerted
effort to play
in the suburbs,
and are hitting
their stride
with suburban
moms, while the
GOP seems
increasingly out
of touch. One of
my mom friends
(married to a
diehard
Republican)
recoils when she
sees the label “G.O.P.”
which, she says,
always reminds
her of “G.O.B”
(for Good ole
boy).
Republicans,
with some
notable
exceptions, seem
to have lost the
ability to
appeal to these
voters with a
mix of pragmatic
conservatism
that contains an
intellectual
idea driven
component.
Instead, many of
our messengers
seem to be
selling a
hateful blend of
“us vs. them” or
“evil vs. moral
and ideological
purity.” This
does not play
well in
suburbia, and it
does not play
well with the
women who live
there.
Having Sarah
Palin on the
ticket in 2008
did not help
Republicans with
suburban moms.
In an NBC
News/WSJ poll
taken right
before the 2008
election, women
were split by
where they lived
on Palin: women
in suburbs
viewed her
unfavorably (37
percent
favorable – 54
percent
unfavorable),
while small
town/rural women
had an opposite
view (54 percent
favorable – 37
percent
unfavorable).
Suburban men, on
the other hand,
split evenly on
the former
Alaska Governor,
while small
town/rural men
were generally
positive.
For many swing
voters, Sarah
Palin has more
in common with
reality TV than
the reality of
their own lives.
While she will
not attract
these women back
to the party,
there are surely
Republican women
who understand
the concerns and
lives of many of
these married
moms who would
be appealing
candidates and
could help the
party win these
women back. This
is a key time
for recruiting
candidates, and
every effort
should be made
to reach out to
this group of
women to find
community,
school, and
business leaders
who could be
appealing
candidates.
For many swing
voters, Sarah
Palin has more
in common with
reality TV than
the reality of
their own lives.
For many women
with families at
home, the cost
is too high to
consider running
for office. But
these women are
exactly the kind
we need right
now. They are
also less likely
than men to
think of
themselves as
potential
candidates, and
they are less
likely to be
recruited to run
for office,
according to
Brown
University’s
Citizen
Political
Ambition Study.
So, GOP party
leaders may need
to work a little
harder to find
these women and
spend more time
encouraging them
to run.
In late June,
the Republican
National
Committee
announced its
Women’s
Interactive
Network
encouraging
state parties to
develop women’s
programs. While
it’s a fine idea
to set up a
sales force, the
more important
focus should be
on finding the
ideas, policies,
message and
messengers that
will give them a
good product.
After all, if
you have a good
product, the
customers will
come.
RF
Christine L.
Matthews is the
founder and
president of
Bellwether
Research and
Consulting (http://bellwether-research.com/).
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