“In 1994, we defeated 15 percent of every Democrat incumbent. In 2006, they defeated 10 percent of every Republican incumbent. So the incumbency factor in a big wave is somewhere between 10 and 15 percent. This is the McCarthy Theory if it plays out. Who do you hit, and who do you catch in a wave election? My theory goes, after five terms is when you’re going to catch someone. Because the first two terms you come here, you bring staff from your own district. You’re not on an ‘A’ committee. On average, you spend $250,000 on communications back home. You go home more. And you get challenged, but normally you win.”
McCarthy’s Theory states that a longer a member of Congress is in office, the more likely it is that his or her legislative priorities – and legislative expenditures -- will shift. For example, as members gain in seniority and win new committee assignments, they are more likely to shift their expenditures from communication with their districts to higher salaries for their staffs. At the same time, McCarthy noted, “you’re winning with higher numbers than you’ve ever won before and you think everybody loves you. The world’s great. You’re raising less money back home and more in the PAC community. That’s when you’re vulnerable.”
According to McCarthy, this approach helped Republicans determine which incumbents to target and which challengers to recruit. He specifically pointed to veteran Tennessee Congressmen John Tanner and Bart Gordon, Arkansas Congressman Vic Snyder and Wisconsin Congressman (and Appropriations Committee Chairman) David Obey as longtime Democratic incumbents who were not only vulnerable, but who chose to retire in the face of a serious challenge from a GOP recruit. He also pointed to California Democrat Loretta Sanchez as another long-time incumbent who faces a serious challenge from her Republican opponent, Van Tran.
In addition to his role as head of the GOP’s recruitment effort, McCarthy also spearheaded another critical initiative this year – the America Speaking Out initiative, which developed the issues and helped lay the foundation for the Pledge to America, which House Republicans released last week. “We went out and talked to the American people,” McCarthy stated in describing how the GOP developed the plan. “What do we talk about? The only things that the public is talking about – jobs, spending and reforming the institution.”
He then recited the opening lines of the Pledge: “America is more than a country. America is an idea.” “The preamble tells us where our hearts are and where we are going to go,” he said of the document. “The plan tells us what we’re going to do.”
